60 Seconds With... Jim Tompkins, Tompkins Assoc.
Staff -- Modern Materials Handling, 6/1/2009
Modern: Jim, you've been a consultant, a speaker and an author. Now, you're the Prophet of Boom. What's that all about?
Tompkins: The title came from a reader of IndustryWeek after I posted a blog telling people that the great recession is behind us and the great comeback is beginning.
Modern: How do you know that? And when did the recession end?
Tompkins: The recession ended a few months ago, and we're in the recovery stage. In February, I determined the comeback in some sectors was already occurring; and in March, the University of Michigan confidence survey turned upward. If you look at food and beverage, cosmetics, and the pharmaceutical industries, you see the beginnings of a pickup. We're seeing the return of the mergers and acquisitions market. The stock market is picking up. It's not across all industries. I don't think you'll see a pick up in materials handling until 2011. The auto industry? Forget it. The last segment to return will be housing. But we are recovering.
Modern: What are you telling your customers they need to do?
Tompkins: I'm telling them they need to look at their operations and develop a plan for the comeback. There's a saying that in the Tour de France, the lead changes most often in the hills. We're in the hills. Most companies focus on how they can maintain their competitive position in the recession. But a company really needs a recovery plan and they need a comeback plan. If you haven't planned for both, you will lose market share. All of that means they need to be making strategic investments now with a reasonable payback of a year or less.
Modern: What percent of companies do you feel have a comeback plan?
Tompkins: At a recent presentation, I said fewer than 1% of companies had a plan in place. Someone in the audience disagreed, so we went around the room. In that audience, we agreed that 95% of the companies were still hunkered down in survival mode.
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