The average Booked Orders Index reported by the Conveyor Equipment Manufacturers Association (CEMA) was 2.1% higher in the final quarter of 2001 than the fourth quarter of 2000. This is a welcome sign that the segment bottomed out in the third quarter, when orders were almost 31% below year-earlier levels. The index for unit-handling equipment looked better: Fourth-quarter 2001 orders were 13.2% above the total for Q4 2000. By the end of 2002, conveyor orders and shipments should recover at least a third of the loss incurred last year.

The average Booked Orders Index compiled by the Industrial Truck Association (ITA) was 35.2% lower during the fourth quarter of 2001 than for the same period in 2000. This was a marginal improvement over the average 38.7% annualized decline in new orders recorded during the first three quarters of 2001. Lift truck orders, on the other hand, may not have reached the bottom of this deep cyclical trough yet. Nevertheless, historical patterns of recovery suggest that those orders will slightly improve in the first half of 2002.

According to the U.S. Commerce Department, the value of overall materials handling machinery and equipment shipments was 14.6% lower in the fourth quarter of last year than it was during the same period in 2000. After peaking at a quarterly growth rate of 20.2% in Q4 2000, gains quickly eroded in 2001. The value of total industry shipments last year trailed figures for 2000 by 5.3%. But things may be stabilizing, since year-over-year declines in November and December were marginally lower than they were during the preceding six months.

The exclusive MMH index of materials handling orders declined by 7.1% between the third and fourth quarters of 2001. (The index reflects booked-orders reports from CEMA, ITA and the U.S. Commerce Department.) Estimated total orders were 16.3% lower during the final quarter of 2001 than in the fourth quarter of 2000-a steep decline after the 17.8% increase recorded between 1999 and 2000. For all of 2001, the MMH orders index fell 9.9%. But we're forecasting marginal improvement in orders this summer and more substantial gains in 2003.