It's not too early to start your holiday shopping. Believe it or not, that's what I read in the paper the other day.

Now wait just a minute. It's early November. And the economy isn't nearly as healthy as it was two years ago. Furthermore, some retail industry analysts are saying this could be the slowest holiday selling season in years. So, what's the problem? In five words, the West Coast port shutdown.

Although it was over in a matter of days, the shutdown continues to have an impact on retail inventories. West Coast ports are backed up. Ships waiting offshore to be unloaded are backed up. Scheduled shipments from China and elsewhere are backed up. And finished goods are being unexpectedly warehoused in their country of origin. Not good - any of it.

The best thing retailers have going for them these days is a slow economy. Otherwise, they could sell out of more than they now think they might.

All of this brings front and center how lean inventories really are. All industries have changed how they operate, and quite dramatically. Jim Tompkins summed it up in the title of a recent book of his - 'Inventory: The Unwanted Asset.'

But now retailers wish they had a little more of it than they do. And after September 11, there were enough disruptions that yet another unforeseen danger was suddenly a reality. So now we've had two scares in a year. But how many contingency plans are there in place today?

In the news story (Planning for disrupted supply chains ), Hewlett-Packard actually had a plan in place when 9-11 hit. But it had nothing to do with terrorism. The plan had been drawn up for possible disruptions from Y2K.

Nike has a plan too. 'We cannot assume away the risks,' says Dennis Colard, VP of global operations at Nike, in that same story. 'And we cannot assume that the past will be the future,' he adds.

The question then becomes - is inventory wanted or unwanted? The real answer is unwanted. Top management is not going to encourage any build up in inventory. If anything, less is better. But they will require that you find a way to access inventory whenever it is needed to build products on the shop floor and ship orders from the distribution center.

So how do you work through both sides of the new equation? Good question without a simple answer. Companies like Nike and H-P have a leg up on this one with their plan already in place. Tompkins' advice is to be nimble. You, too, need to put yourself in the same position. After all, having too little inventory is as bad as having too much.