The Booked Orders Index compiled monthly by the Industrial Truck Association (ITA) shows that lift truck orders were at a level 2.3% weaker during the third quarter of last year than during April-June of 2002. But the market continued to show some improvement when viewed from a longer-term perspective. Following 2001's plunge of 38%, the estimated value of lift truck orders during the first ten months of 2002 was running a solid 11.4% ahead of the depressed year-ago pace. We're forecasting market growth of 6.6% this year, following a final gain of about 11% for 2002.

The average Booked Orders Index for all conveyors (bulk and unit handling) reported by the Conveyor Equipment Manufacturers Association (CEMA) during the third quarter of 2002 was 7.9% higher than the previous quarter. But that was a much smaller gain than expected, given the seasonal ordering that normally pushes third quarter totals higher in even the worst of times. Total orders during the first nine months of 2002 were worth an estimated 22% less than the same period in 2001. Following 2002's loss of about 20%, we're forecasting a gain of 4% in 2003 orders.

The U.S. Commerce Department's monthly survey of U.S. manufacturers showed the value of materials handling machinery and equipment shipments to be worth 13.9% less during the first nine months of last year than the same period in 2001. Following a 5.3% decline during 2001, it looks like industry shipments fell by at least another 10% in 2002. Although we're still reasonably confident saying that shipments and orders bottomed out in late 2002, it looks like 2003 will be a classic "year of transition"—no further declines, but not much in the way of growth either.

The exclusive MMH index of orders increased by a modest 6.0% between the second and third quarters of 2002, following declines during seven of the previous nine quarters. But the gain was of a much smaller magnitude than hoped. Entering the final quarter of 2002, our index was still 6.8% lower than 12 months earlier. And with the final three months of 2002 not looking particularly strong, we're estimating full-year 2002 orders will finish 13% lower than 2001. We're expecting to see gradual improvement by mid-2003, with the 2003 orders index moving up 5 percent.