Software has been in the dumper for some time now. Demand is off. CIOs are in disrepute for over promising at the same time as they bought functionality that never got used. The CEO wants to know why the ROI target was missed. In general, software's reputation is a bit tarnished.

But to read a column by Tony Friscia of AMR Research, it's not going to be this way for much longer. "While severe, this downturn, like every other, is largely cyclical - spending will pick up again and we will again see a new project-based technology economy."

I couldn't agree more. According to an e-mail survey just completed by Modern , 91% of respondents say they will be purchasing/upgrading their software over the next 18 months. The average spend by company will be $340,000, and 71% will be buying warehouse management systems (WMS).

Then Friscia goes on to predict "significant structural [permanent] changes will stem from this downturn." One change will be the emergence of line-of-business decision makers in determining IT strategies and budgets. The other will be a shift in the basis of competition in technology markets.

Friscia says a survey by AMR shows "software selection teams have changed significantly in the past three years." Gone is the dominance of IT. While IT still sits at the table, company management and line- of-business managers have much more say. Quite frankly, it's all about meeting the business strategy instead of some technology agenda. And no one better understands the impact of a software decision on the supply chain, for instance, than line-of-business managers responsible for the supply chain.

Our survey shows much the same. The functions most involved in the selection team for supply chain software are company management and top warehousing, distribution, and logistics personnel. The IT people were much less involved here.

As to the new competitive rules that Friscia refers to, our story on the biggest best-of-breed WMS suppliers (click here to read ) already sees it. Until now, enterprise resource planning (ERP) suppliers had never made the list. Their WMS offerings were just too weak. But that is changing. SAP is in at #4, and probably won't be alone for long.

Both Steve Banker of ARC Advisory Group and Jeff Woods of Gartner see the biggest WMS players getting bigger and the ERP companies displacing weaker suppliers. Even the best-of-breed suppliers admit to seeing the newcomers as their strongest competition going forward.

So when it comes to supply chain software, not only is the decision-making power more in your hands, but now you've got choices that weren't there before. That sounds like a winning formula to me.