The Industrial Truck Association's April Booked Orders Index returned to 131, the average for late 2002, after dipping to 115 during this past winter. Expect an increase to 148 by year-end and 158 by the end of 2004. Already retail and distribution markets show sustained postwar recovery but manufacturing did not improve in April or May. The expected higher lift truck sales will initially be replacement and upgrade purchases, financed by rising profits. End user capacity additions will not be a significant sales driver for lift trucks until late next year.

The booked orders index from the Conveyor Equipment Manufacturers Association has tracked closely to the capital goods trend in general. This includes an exaggerated peak in early 2000, a steep two-year decline, an aborted recovery in mid 2002 and a renewed drop in early 2003. Conveyor orders are now at their bottom but are expected to rise slowly for the rest of the year and more quickly in 2004. This results in a forecast 4.7% gain in 2003 and even more next year. However, even a one-month delay in recovery would cut the expected 2003 gain.

Shipments were stuck at a 10-year low during the prewar period when most capital goods markets were weakening. However, that is now behind us. Sales are forecast to be 3% higher by year-end and then increase almost 10% by the end of 2004. The small 2003 sales gains will be driven by confidence that capacity needs will be higher next year so the forecasted gain is very tentative. Actual capacity constraints will quicken sales beginning next year with a weaker dollar contributing to stronger exports.

Modern's orders index began rising in the spring after a 22% decline during the previous three years broken only by a temporary upturn in early 2002. The index is now expected to increase between now and the end of 2004. This year will average 6% above 2002 with a further 9% rise expected next year. Manufacturers' equipment inventories have declined steadily for several years but are still slightly high for the current sales level so shipments gains will initially trail the pickup in orders. Initially, orders will be heavily replacement.