ATA data points to bright future for trucking growth

While the current state of affairs for trucking may be viewed as, say, stagnant, mundane, uneven, or some other less than flattering term, it appears that the mode’s future is actually quite bright, especially when compared to others.

That’s the working thesis from the American Trucking Associations (ATA) U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2027, which was released earlier this week.

And it is made clear in the report’s key data takeaways, including:

• over all freight tonnage will grow by a total of 35 percent between 2016 and 2027, with the amount of freight moved by trucks expected to grow 27 percent during that period;
• truckload volumes will grow 2 percent annually between 2016 -2022 and 1.6 percent per year after that until 2027;
• less-than-truckload volume will grow 3 percent annually through 2022 and 2.8 percent from 2023-2027;
• private carrier volumes will grow 2.3 percent annually until 2022 and 2.1 percent each year over the next five years; and
• truck, rail, and water modes are expected to lose share to pipeline, which is expected to grow from 10.5 percent to 17.4 percent between 2016-2027, due to growth in the U.S. energy sector

“As we continue to see growth in the overall economy, particularly due to manufacturing, consumer spending and international trade, we will also see increases in the amount of freight moved in America’s trucks,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement.

This report follows the ATA’s August release of its annual American Trucking Trends publication, which stated that with total trucking industry revenue topping $700 million for the second straight year in 2015 at $726.4 billion, or 3.6 percent or so higher than 2014’s $700.4 billion.

Some of the key data points highlighted in this report include: trucking collected $726.4 billion in gross freight revenues, 81.5% of the nation’s freight bill in 2015; trucks carried 10.49 tons of freight in 2015, accounting for 70.1% of domestic freight tonnage; and in 2015, there were 3.63 million Class 8 trucks in operation.

The ATA’s numbers are pretty optimistic, it seems, given the combination of the current lack of carrier pricing power, capacity reductions due to low demand levels, still-high inventory levels, and the current and future impact of federal regulations, too.

Another issue is the driver shortage, a problem that appears to be front and center more often than not and still dealing with more questions and answers, when it comes to what needs to be done to fill seats and keep drivers in them. Some carriers are stepping up with better pay and amenities and training, which is a step in the right direction.

As has been noted in this space before, while the numbers can change in this report somewhat, the one underlying theme that seldom changes is that trucking continues to have the biggest piece of the freight in terms of tonnage, when compared to its modal brethren. That is something that is unlikely to change.

Another thing that bears repeating is that a solid and fluid trucking network is vital for our nation’s economic engine. And while the trucking industry is currently in a relatively decent spot, there is always room for improvement while facing major challenges, too.

These challenges what are often viewed as onerous regulations, the interminable truck driver shortage, and the increasingly beaten- up state of our nation’s infrastructure.

Here is another recurring theme to remember, too: trucking’s presence in the overall economy and the supply chain world cannot be swept aside. It can be a tough industry to be consistently profitable in while carriers of all sizes keep a watchful eye on service levels, and safety, for good reason.

It has long been noted that trucking activity can be viewed as an indicator for how the economy is doing. While that direct line is somewhat a tad more checkered these days, it still largely rings true and is worth watching as things slowly return to something at least resembling a more stable economic outlook.