ATA reports declines in February truck tonnage volumes

Trucking volumes saw declines in February, according to data issued by the American Trucking Associations (ATA) today.

Seasonally-adjusted (SA) for-hire truck tonnage in February at 138.7 (2000=100) dropped 0.1 percent compared to January, while dropping 2.6 percent annually and was 4.0 percent below the all-time high of February 2016’s 142.7.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, was 125.5 in February and 4.6 percent below January’s 131.7. On an annual basis, the February NSA was essentially flat, down 0.4 percent compared to February 2016’s 126.

As defined by the ATA, the NSA index is assembled by adding up all the monthly tonnage data reported by the survey respondents (ATA member carriers) for the latest two months. Then a monthly percent change is calculated and then applied to the index number for the first month.

“February’s numbers, especially the year-over-year drop, might surprise some as several other economic indicators were positive in February,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement. “However, I’m not worried about the decline from February last year as it was really due to very difficult comparisons more than anything else: February 2016 was abnormally strong. Looking ahead, signs remain mostly positive for truck tonnage, including lower inventory levels, better manufacturing activity, solid housing starts, good consumer spending, as well as an increase in the oil rig count – all of which are drivers of freight volumes.”

Should the inventory issues truly continue to recede, it will go a long way in helping volume growth, especially if it runs in tandem with ongoing job growth, and the semblance of sustained gains in retail sales and consumer confidence, too.

And as Costello points out, there is clearly room to run for truck tonnage growth in the coming months, too, based on the myriad positive economic indicators at the moment.

That was driven home in the most recent edition of the Cass Freight Index Report from Cass Information Systems, which has suggested in recent months that the Freight Recession is ending, with shipments levels trending up and, in turn, signaling a freight recovery had begun in earnest since October 2016, when shipment growth in the Cass data turned positive for the first time in 20 months.