Import growth is flat from September to October, reports Panjiva

Data issued by Panjiva, an online search engine with detailed information on global suppliers and manufacturers, was true to historical form, with flat growth for United States-bound waterborne shipments for the month of October.

The total number of October shipments at 913,543 was flat compared to September, which was consistent with growth patterns in recent years, with 2014 up 2 percent, 2013 up 3 percent, and 2012 down 1 percent. October to November shipments, like September to October, are expected to decline based on historical trends, according to Panjiva.

On an annual basis, October shipments saw a 6 percent annual decline, with Panjiva pointing out that this marks the first time going back to 2009 that October has had an annual decline in imports. And on a year-to-date basis from January through October, shipments are up 0.4 percent at 9,119,271.

In an interview, Annelise McCarthy, Panjiva research director, said that October’s numbers are historically sound in that there is usually not much growth in either direction from September to October, with the mid-year build up in advance of the holiday season typically seeing higher volume numbers before tailing off closer to the end of the year.

She said that the 6 percent annual decline was higher than expected, with declines not at that level historically.

“This is part of a larger trend,” she said. “Since 2009, we started to see import growth as we recovered from the financial crisis. Things have been growing steadily since then, and now this year we are starting to see that growth slow a little bit, as evidenced by the 0.4 percent year-to-date increase, which is a reasonable range. We started the year with higher annual growth, with the last couple of months bringing it down. The 0.4 percent growth number is still good, it is just representing lower growth levels at the moment.”