November non-manufacturing activity turns in strong performance, reports ISM

Non-manufacturing activity remained on the right side of growth, according to the most recent edition of the Non-Manufacturing Report on Business issued today by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

The index ISM uses to measure non-manufacturing growth—known as the NMI—rose 2.4 percent to 57.2 in November, topping the 12-month average of 54.9 and the highest NMI reading in the last 12 months. This is the highest NMI going back to October 2015, when it was at 59.1.

“The economy seems to be humming along very nicely, especially in light of last week’s [ISM] manufacturing data for November, which was also strong,” said Tony Nieves, chair of the ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

Each of the report’s core four metrics, including the NMI, showed growth in November. Business activity/production rose 4.0 percent to 61.7, hitting its highest level since October 2015’s 61.8, and new orders at 57.0 were off only 0.7 percent from October to November. Employment was up 5.1 percent to 58.2 for its best month since December 2015’s 58.3.

ISM reported that 14 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in November, including Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; and Mining. The two industries reporting contraction in November were Real Estate, Rental & Leasing and Public Administration.

ISM member respondent comments included in the report were largely positive. A construction respondent cited a nearly 9 percent monthly gain in active, secured projects for the variable side of its business, and a retail sales respondent pointed to increased holiday sales. A public administration respondent said things have tapered off following a flurry of orders at the beginning of the fiscal year.

Other notable metrics in the report included:
-supplier deliveries up 1.5 percent at 52.0 (above 50 for this metric means it contracted);
-prices down 0.3 percent to 56.3;
-backlog of orders down 1.0 percent at 51.0; and
-inventories down 0.5 percent to 51.5

As for how 2016 will end up for non-manufacturing, Nieves said he expects things to remain on this current trend, while perhaps not as strong as November, but in the same ballpark.

“Things might taper off just because of the holidays,” he said. “But we will have a better picture with our semi-annual forecast later this week. Overall, things are in good shape. There have been some head fakes along the way at times with data readings, but for the most part it has been consistent and shown growth, with the NMI now having grown for 88 months.”