NRF is optimistic about the 2015 holiday sales season

Once again, it seems like reading the economic tea leafs has become something north of challenging. Things like fluctuating data for employment, GDP, and industrial production, import growth, among others, seem to continually (or perhaps permanently) waver, which ostensibly leads to ongoing economic uncertainty.

But even with the topsy-turvy nature of things, data issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) for the 2015 holiday season appears to be trending in a rather bullish direction.

Holiday sales—as defined by the NRF—are sales in the months of November and December and exclude autos, gas, and restaurant sales. And the NRF is calling for 2015 holiday sales to see a 3.7 percent annual gain to $630.5 billion, which comfortably outpaces the ten-year average of 2.5 percent.

What’s more, the NRF said that 2015 holiday sales will account for roughly 19 percent of the $3.2 trillion in total 2015 annual retail sales, with holiday season online sales expected to see an annual jump between 6-to-8 percent and head up to as much as $105 billion. 

Should this holiday season projections hold, they would be in good company with 2014, which saw a 4.1 percent annual increase in holiday sales.

The NRF’s holiday sales forecast, according to the organization, is based on an economic model that uses several different types of indicators, including consumer credit, disposable personal income, and previous monthly sales releases

“Similar to last year in the sense we’re coming off a rather disappointing first half, this holiday season brings to light several crosscurrents that still exist for American households,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz in a statement. “While confidence data is encouraging, slower job growth in 2015, deflationary retail prices and the mix of consumer spending somewhat shifting toward big ticket items and services, as well as the wild card in our government spending debates, will all contribute to the slower growth rate of sales expected for the holiday season. All said, there’s no reason to doubt that we will see solid retail sales growth in the final two months of the year.”

Whether or not these numbers come to fruition remains to be seen. Carriers point to good but not great freight activity at the moment, with volumes expected to increase as we get closer to the holiday shopping season. But a still too high inventory-to-sales ratio, coupled with declines in new orders and an increase in order backlogs remain chief concerns among retailers and figure to serve as key themes as the days and weeks leading up to holiday season inch closer, too.

Other factors that could loom as challenges to holiday retail sales include things like consumer confidence, the housing market, GDP, and employment growth.

The most recent edition of the Port Tracker report from the NRF and global maritime consultancy Hackett Associates suggests that holiday seasons will be decent, with import gains in conjunction with the holiday season expected in October and November.

As per the usual, the mixed bag of economic indicators remains full, but projections and optimism on behalf of retailers remain high for the 2015 holiday shopping season. Whether or not that happens remains firmly in the hands, and wallets, of consumers.