NRF predicts 4.1% annual increase for 2014 holiday retail sales

Despite the relatively sluggish overall pace of retail sales growth, data issued by the National Retail Federation (NRF) this week points to annual retail sales gains for the 2014 holiday season.

Holiday sales—as defined by the NRF—are sales in the months of November and December and exclude autos, gas, and restaurant sales. For 2014, the NRF said it expects holiday sales to grow 4.1% compared to 2013 to $616.9 billion, which is above the actual 3.1% for 2013.

The NRF said that holiday sales have grown by an average of 2.9% over the last ten years, which includes its 2014 projection, and are pegged to account for 19.2% of the retail sector’s $3.2 trillion in 2014 annual sales, and if the 4.1% 2014 annual increase is reached, it would mark the first time holiday sales have headed up more than 4% annually since 2011.

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