Panjiva reports an atypical decline in U.S. import activity in April

Straying from its typical seasonal trajectory, United States-bound waterborne shipments dipped from March to April, according to data recently issued by Panjiva, an online search engine with detailed information on global suppliers and manufacturers.

April shipments–at 880,269-were down 11 percent compared to March’s 988,065, which differed significantly from the 10 percent gain for the same period in 2014, a 20 percent increase in 2013, and matching 9 percent gains in both 2012 and 2011.

On an annual basis, April shipments were down 3 percent, and on a year-to-date basis through April shipments are up 2 percent at 3,461,168.

“I was certainly surprised to see such a significant drop in April,” said Panjiva CEO Josh Green. “Traditionally, we see increases from March to April.”

As for what led to this atypical seasonal decline, Green explained that United States import trade flows are still working their way through the turbulence caused by the West Coast port labor disruption.

But he cautioned it might be premature to read too much into the April data, as it is only one month and not a true trend.

What’s more there are various global and domestic macroeconomic indicators related to trade that can influence U.S.-bound import numbers from one month to the next, including jobs, consumer confidence and outlook, and sluggish retail sales, among other things.

Green remains optimistic when viewing the macroeconomic outlook as it relates to import growth, with one of the key data points being jobs numbers, with the most recent jobs report showing gains in jobs and a decrease in the unemployment rate.

“That jobs data combined with some of the anecdotal things like the recent increase in minimum wage on the West Coast are all signs of an economy that continues to have strength, so my sense is that despite what happened in April, we can still anticipate a year of growth for trade,” he noted.

Conversely, though, he pointed out there are also things that could sidetrack growth including: continuing economic troubles in the European Union; troubling signs in China, with manufacturing growth weak there in recent months; and how the U.S. Federal Reserve handles interest rates going forward heading through 2015 and into 2016.

With the calendar heading to mid-year, Green said that typically May and June see flattish numbers, which, if that happens this year, would serve as a sign that trade remains on a modest growth track.

“One of the things that has been interesting about 2015 is that seasonal patterns have been totally different than what we have seen in recent years,” noted Green. “Most of that is attributable, though, to what happened on the West Coast, so we can expect to see things level off, as we head into the second half of the year, so we will have to see.”