Port Tracker shows decent volumes amid fallout from Hanjin bankruptcy

In light of the recent bankruptcy filing by Hanjin Shipping, United States-bound retail imports are expected to be at near-peak levels in September, according to the most recent edition of the Port Tracker report issued late last week by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma, Seattle, Houston, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, and Savannah, Miami, and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades. Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

“Hanjin should not significantly affect volume for the month since alternative arrangements to unload those containers or shift cargo elsewhere should be dealt with by the time the numbers are tallied,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement. “But millions of dollars worth of merchandise is in limbo at the moment, and retailers are working hard to make sure it ends up on store shelves in time for the holidays.”

For July, the most recent month for which data is available, total volume was 1.63 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), which was up 3.2 percent from June and up 0.7 percent ahead of July 2015.

August, which is traditionally the highest import month of the year, was pegged at 1.67 million TEU for a 0.4 percent annual decrease. September imports are expected to hit 1.62 million TEU, which would be down 0.2 percent, with October at 1.63 million TEU, which is a 5.3 percent increase. November is calling for a 3.8 percent gain at 1.53 million TEU, with December and January at 1.49 million TEU (a 3.6 percent increase) and 1.53 million TEU (a 2.8 percent increase), respectively.

For all of 2016, Port Tracker is calling for a 1.8 percent annual increase at 18.6 million, ahead of a previous estimate of 1.6 percent annual growth. The first half of 2016 came in at 9 million TEU for a 1.6 percent annual increase.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that despite the apparent slowdown in economic activity being reported around the world, the volume of imports continues to grow slowly and along the lines of his firm’s projections.

“Growth on the West Coast is stronger with the forecast for 2016 projecting a 2.3 percent increase in imports and a total of 12.20 million TEUs, with Los Angeles/Long Beach showing slightly better growth at 2.7 percent,” Hackett wrote in the report. “The East Coast is significantly weaker with a projected 0.6 percent increase over 2015, bringing the total to 8.17 million TEUs and suggesting that the West Coast is re-gaining its market share despite the increased number of services via the expanded Panama Canal. Growth in a world of declining economic indicators is the same conundrum that we pointed out last month. We expect growth to continue into 2017 at similar lackluster levels unless the election in November puts a wrench in the works.”