September retail sales data from Commerce and NRF shows varying gains

September retail sales numbers issued today by the United States Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation (NRF) showed gains to various degrees, according to data released by each group.

Commerce reported that September retail sales at $447.7, which matched August’s tally, billion were up 0.1 percent compared to August, following a 0.2 percent July to August increase, and were up 2.4 percent compared to September 2014. Total retail sales from July through September were up 2.3 percent compared to the same period in 2014.

“September retail sales paint a very mixed picture,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, in a blog posting. “We’re encouraged by the relatively strong year-over-year sales increase but recognize the muted growth could be the result of an unusually warm September and the fact that retailers could still be challenged by falling prices compared to a year ago. At the same time, retailers may have benefitted from a later-than-usual Labor Day holiday.”

And the NRF reported that September retail sales, which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants, were up 3.3 percent annually and down 0.1 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis compared to August. NRF said this increase helped quell concerns regarding expected consumer spending growth, but noted that the sequential decline dealt with the aftereffects of warmer than normal weather and a deflationary retail environment. The NRF added that the three-month moving average growth on an annual basis for its calculated retail sales is 3.4 percent.

Last week, the NRF said it expects holiday sales—which it defines as sales in the months of November and December and exclude autos, gas, and restaurant sales—to see a 3.7 percent annual gain to $630.5 billion, which comfortably outpaces the ten-year average of 2.5 percent.What’s more, the NRF said that 2015 holiday sales will account for roughly 19 percent of the $3.2 trillion in total 2015 annual retail sales, with holiday season online sales expected to see an annual jump between 6-to-8 percent and head up to as much as $105 billion.

Should this holiday season projections hold, they would be in good company with 2014, which saw a 4.1 percent annual increase in holiday sales.