Truck tonnage shows modest September gains but concerns remain, reports ATA

Truck tonnage levels for the month of September were mixed, according to data issued this week by the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

Seasonally-adjusted (SA) for-hire truck tonnage in September at 135.1 (2000=100) was 0.7 percent of August’s 134.1, and was 0.7 percent below the all-time high of 135.8 recorded in January 2015.

Compared to September 2015, this reading is up 3.1 percent, which tops the annual increase of 2.1 percent in August, and on a year-to-date basis through September, the SA is up 3.3 percent.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment was 138.9 in September, outpacing August by 1.4 percent. And compared to September 2014, the NSA was up 2.3 percent.

As defined by the ATA, the not seasonally-adjusted index is assembled by adding up all the monthly tonnage data reported by the survey respondents (ATA member carriers) for the latest two months. Then a monthly percent change is calculated and then applied to the index number for the first month.

“The see-saw pattern in truck freight tonnage continued again in September, except that the gain didn’t fully wipe out August’s decline” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement. “However, over the last few months tonnage has snapped back from softness this past spring and early summer, and is approaching the record high. I remain concerned about the high level of inventories throughout the supply chain. We recently learned that inventories throughout the supply chain and relative to sales rose slightly in August, which is not a good sign. This could have a negative impact on truck freight volumes over the next few months.”

As previously reported, the high inventory-to-sales ratio has been a concern for freight transportation volumes for several months and is again reflected in this latest batch of ATA data.

Carriers and shippers maintain that volumes could inch higher should the inventory-to-sales ratio decline and consumer activity heat up in advance of the holidays and back-to-school shopping in some parts of the country. And it is also worth noting that the overall economy was stronger at this time last year, too.

At recent industry conferences, some shippers and carriers said they expect to see tonnage improvements towards the end of 2015 and into 2016, with current volumes impacted to a degree by cautious consumer spending, coupled with ongoing global economic headwinds.

Rob Salmon, Deutsche Bank transportation analyst wrote in a research note that his firm remains “cautious about the near-term outlook for freight demand given elevated inventories, which have been growing faster than sales at retailers, manufacturing companies, and wholesalers.”