U.S.-bound shipments see expected decline from November to December, reports Panjiva

As expected, United States-bound waterborne shipments saw a decrease from October to November, according to data issued by Panjiva, an online search engine with detailed information on global suppliers and manufacturers.

November shipments at 874,646 were off 4 percent compared to October’s 913,543 which fared better than a 12 percent dip for the same period in 2014 and an 8 percent decrease in 2013. In 2012, shipments dropped only 2 percent from October to November.

On a year-to-date basis through November, Panjiva said shipments are up 0.5 percent at 9,993,917.

“The decline for November specifically was within the expected range and a little bit less than previous years, but we have also seen similar levels in recent years as well,” said Panjiva Research Director Annelise McCarthy in an interview.

As for how December is going and how 2015 is expected to finish, McCarthy said December could see modest growth compared to November, with 2015 seeing modest growth, too.

The reason for the expected relatively modest growth is due to diminishing growth that has been intact through most of 2015.

“When we look at that, it suggests that despite a couple of years of growth rates in the 4 percent range annually, this year is likely to come in at less than 1 percent annual growth,” she explained.

Looking ahead to 2016, she said that January is typically slow to start the year and that is not expected to change. As for 2016 overall, though, modest growth is likely to remain in the cards, following a period of high growth following a recovery that was evidenced in recent years prior to 2015.

In regards to the recent move by the United States Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point and how that could impact trade, McCarthy said that move has been anticipated for a long time and essentially been accepted by the global economy.

“We don’t anticipate any big shift in the import numbers we are seeing due to that change,” she said. “If anything, it is more of a sign of optimism.”