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The view from VDC
June 26, 2008
A year ago, I attended a panel discussion on the state of the RFID industry at RFID Journal Live led by Drew Nathanson, practice director for AIDC, RFID and retail automation technologies at VDC.
At the time, May of 2007, the mood in the RFID industry was pretty gloomy. That was reflected in conversations I had with vendors at that conference, and among the panel members. Last week, I thought it was a good time to check back in with Nathanson to see what’s changed in the year since we’d last talked.
The view from VDC: The market for RFID in the supply chain is still under-performing expectations. At $230 million, EPC Gen II technology is just 7-to- 8% of the total RFID market. But the market feels different from what it felt a year ago.
“When we look at RFID in the supply chain, we are seeing a light at the end of the tunnel,” Nathanson said. “The expectations of end users have come back down to earth and are in line with what you can actually do with the technology.”
Where the Holy Grail was once thought to be a 5-cent tag that could replace a bar code for item level tracking, what’s emerging instead is a variety of tags at a variety of price points for a variety of applications.
“Our view is that RFID is not a replacement technology for bar codes,” Nathan said. “It’s a complimentary technology. End users don’t want to scrap something that’s working. Instead, they’re migrating to RFID at their own pace and in their own way.”
On the supplier side, innovation is the buzzword of the day. Among other things, Nathason is watching the development of three technologies:
* A start-up company in Waltham, Ma. is developing a tag with 64 kilobytes of memory to track parts and assets in the maintenance, repair and overhaul space in the commercial aviation industry.
* Ultra Wide Band technology is looking for a toehold in the industry. “If you want high precision, it’s the best technology,” Nathanson said. “However, it is expensive because you need special readers.”
* New readers for reading tags from long distances are also being piloted. “We tested the technology at a warehouse at Ft. Devens and read a mixed pallet from 600 feet away,” Nathanson said. “The technology is expensive, but it could give the active tag space a run for its money. We know of several emerging players in the space, and we expect them to make a lot of waves.”
To learn more about the state of the RFID industry, keep an eye out for our report on the Top 20 AIDC Suppliers in the October 2008 issue of the magazine. We’ll be talking to Nathanson and his colleagues at VDC to learn what happened in the last year in the industry.
Posted by Bob Trebilcock on June 26, 2008 | Comments (0)