ELFA

Survey also shows increase versus previous month, and overall for year, equipment leasing "holding its own" given COVID-19 stresses

GDP growth for 2020 is forecast between -3.8 and -4.8 percent, according to the Q4 update to the 2020 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook released today by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation.

August new business volume down 24% year-over-year, 23% month-to-month, and 4% year-to-date

New business volume data follows unchanged Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation’s Monthly Confidence Index.

ELFF report: Materials handling equipment investment likely to remain negative, all other industrial equipment investment growth likely to contract.

While optimistic for a ‘V’ shaped economic cycle if the health crisis is first solved, some fear a prolonged shutdown will create business failures, more unemployment and unprecedented losses in the equipment finance industry and beyond.

Trade, innovation, elections and wild cards promise an eventful year for equipment investments.

Equipment and software investment likely to post weakest year of growth since 2016 following the first annualized contraction in more than three years in Q3.

Although a recession in the next six months appears unlikely, business conditions for the equipment finance industry are also unlikely to improve materially over the rest of the year, particularly for equipment verticals that serve the manufacturing sector.

Business conditions for the equipment finance industry softened in the first half of the year, and investment growth in several key verticals is expected to slow or contract in the second half of 2019.

ELFA forecasts generally positive economy and solid capital investment with building headwinds and moderated growth by year end.

ELFA president noted demand, abundant funding in the credit markets and quality portfolios as contributors to a healthy equipment finance sector in 2018.

Reported by key executives from the $1 trillion equipment finance sector, confidence in the equipment finance market eased to 53.4 from the December index of 55.5.

Tariff frictions with trading partners in North America, the EU and China remain a wild card.

Businesses are expected to make their largest capital investments since 2012.