Oil Prices

By Derik Andreoli · November 2, 2016
Over the last 20 years, the volume of oil consumed per unit of real GDP has contracted on a very consistent basis; consequently, the global economy could grow at more than 2% per year without oil demand rising. Meanwhile shale oil producers—the world’s swing producers—are increasing well productivity at double-digit rates.
By Derik Andreoli · April 1, 2016
Google is kind enough to aggregate all the oil news stories of the day and send them to me in an e-mail. And as part of my morning routine, I read all the headlines and click through to dig more deeply into those that promise to bring new insight.
By Derik Andreoli · February 1, 2016
If it feels like global oil and fuel markets are in a constant state of turmoil—it’s because they are. And as we enter 2016, markets could not be more unstable.
By Derik Andreoli · May 1, 2015
In the 1970s, legislation was enacted banning the export of domestic crude oil without a special license—and unless Canada is the destination, export licenses are nearly impossible for domestic producers to acquire. With the growing oil glut, the time to lift the ban has come.
By Derik Andreoli · April 1, 2015
History suggests that the current oil glut and the associated price decline will be a temporary phenomenon, and the economics and petro-physics of unconventional oil production—fracking in particular—further suggest that the domestic glut will be eroded sooner than most prognosticators believe.
By Derik Andreoli · February 1, 2015
Since 2011, domestic oil production has increased by 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd), and over the last 12 months alone production has increased by 1.4 million bpd. Meanwhile, Russian production hit a post-Soviet era high in November, and oil exports from Iraq are growing at a record pace.
By Derik Andreoli · December 1, 2014
The biggest oil and fuel market story of 2014 was the 30+ percent decline in global crude oil prices experienced in the second half of the year. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot prices fell from just under $110 to $74 per barrel—a level not seen since the global recession cut a whopping 6 percent from global consumption back in 2009. This price decline has come largely at the hands of surging U.S. oil production and the fact that global demand has lagged due to significant deceleration in the growth rate of Chinese demand.
By Patrick Burnson · June 23, 2014
IHS Energy experts say oil markets have turned their attention squarely to Iraq and the fast-moving attacks of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The impact on global supply chains has yet to be measured.
By Derik Andreoli · June 1, 2014
An analysis of natural gas storage volumes strongly suggests that natural gas prices will rise significantly towards the end of the year; and as they rise, so too will the price for CNG and LNG.
By Derik Andreoli · March 1, 2014
Natural gas prices have risen 40 percent to over $6 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) since the beginning of the year. As a regular reader of this column, rising prices should come as no surprise. In July of last year, when the price was just $3.52 per Mcf, I predicted that prices would rise to between $4.00 and $4.25 per Mcf by the end of the year.
By Derik Andreoli · February 1, 2014
In Lewis Carroll’s hallucinogenic novella, Through the Looking Glass, the Red Queen explains to Alice that she too can become a queen by reaching the opposite side of the playing board. But Alice, who has been running as fast as she can, finds that, despite her efforts, she remains in the same spot.
By Derik Andreoli · January 1, 2014
Interest in alternative fuel vehicles skyrocketed in 2013, with successful pilot programs for compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks being deployed in both private and for-hire truck fleets.
By Derik Andreoli · October 1, 2013
The natural gas market outlook has been a frequent topic covered in this column over the last two years. Over this time, I have consistently argued that although natural gas is abundant, natural gas prices will inevitably rise because the costs of production do not support the “glut” prices that have resulted from the fracking boom.
By Derik Andreoli · August 1, 2013
One needs to look no further than the futures market for evidence that analysts’ forecasts are rarely correct. In every trade, the buyer believes that prices will rise, and the seller believes the exact opposite. Not often do you see an analyst publicly reflect on a prior forecast—except, of course, when their goal is to make a “victory lap.”

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