March retail sales post gains, despite inflation, according to Commerce and NRF data

Despite ongoing high inflation United States March retail sales saw gains, according to data issued today by the United States Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation (NRF).

Commerce reported that March retail sales—at $665.7 billion—rose 0.5% compared to February and were up 6.9% annually. It also noted that total retail sales, from December 2021 through March 2022, increased 12.9% compared to the same period a year ago. Based on its Commerce’s data, retail sales have seen annual gains every month going back to March 2020.

Retail trade sales were up 0.4% annually, with gasoline stations up 37.0%, and food services and drinking places up 19.4%.

NRF said that in its calculation of retail sales, which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants, to focus on core retail, pointed to sales being flat on a seasonally adjusted basis from February, while rising 4% on an unadjusted basis annually, with sales off 0.7% sequentially and up 13.2% annually.

On a three-month moving average through March, NRF reported that retail sales were up 8.6% annually on an unadjusted basis, which is in line with the organization’s 2022 retail sales forecast, pegging a 6%-to-8% gain, to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.

“While prices soared in March and eroded spending power, shoppers remained resilient and sales were healthy,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement. “Consumers have the willingness to spend and their ability to do so has been supported by rapid hiring, increased wages, larger-than-usual tax refunds and the use of credit. They are largely dealing with the shock of gas prices but will be facing higher interest rates as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy in the coming months. The challenge for the Fed is to cool off demand without pushing the economy into a dramatic slowdown.”

NRF said that March retail sales were up in all but two categories on both a monthly and yearly basis, with year-over-year gains led by grocery, clothing and furniture sales. Specifics from key sectors include:

-Grocery and beverage stores were up 1 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 7.9 percent unadjusted year-over-year;
-Clothing and clothing accessory stores were up 2.6 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 7.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year;
-Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.7 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 4.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year;
-General merchandise stores were up 5.4 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 3.9 percent unadjusted year-over-year;
-Online and other non-store sales were down 6.4 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 2.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year;
-Building materials and garden supply stores were up 0.5 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 1.8 percent unadjusted year-over-year;
-Health and personal care stores were down 0.3 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 0.9 percent unadjusted year-over-year;
-Sporting goods stores were up 3.3 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted but down 5.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year; and
-Electronics and appliance stores were up 3.3 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted but down 9.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year