NAM survey: Manufacturing optimism dips in Q2 amid trade uncertainties, workforce shortage

The National Association of Manufacturers released the results of the Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey for the second quarter of 2019. In the field during the prospects of tariffs on Mexican goods and still unresolved threat of 232 auto tariffs, the survey shows a dip in manufacturers’ optimism amid trade uncertainties. A positive outlook for their business was registered by 79.8 percent of manufacturers in the second quarter, down from 89.5 percent in the first quarter.

“Clearly, optimism is still strong among manufacturers, but you can’t overlook the fact that trade uncertainties are causing concern for manufacturers,” said NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray, who conducted the survey. “All things equal, I would expect these numbers to improve if we get the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement across the finish line, strengthen our trading relationships by removing the threat of 232 auto tariffs and get a trade deal with China done.”

The inability to attract and retain a quality workforce remained manufacturers’ top business concern (68.8 percent) in the second quarter. The survey also found that a majority of manufacturers (56 percent) are concerned about trade uncertainties with regards to the USMCA, a U.S.-China trade agreement, looming 232 auto tariffs and the now-resolved threat of U.S. tariffs on Mexico. In addition, nearly half of manufacturers are concerned about increased raw material prices.

The Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey has surveyed the association’s membership of 14,000 large and small manufacturers on a quarterly basis since 1997 to gain insight into their economic outlook, hiring and investment decisions and business concerns. The NAM releases the results to the public each quarter.