November retail sales again see solid gains

Retail sales posted another strong month in November, according to data respectively issued this week by the Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation (NRF).

Commerce reported that November retail sales—at $639.8 billion—were up 0.3% compared to October, while seeing an 18.2% annual gain. And it added that total retail sales, from September through November, saw a 16.2% increase compare to the same period a year ago.

Retail trade sales rose 0.2% compared to October and were up 16.1% annually, and food and drinking places saw a 37.4% annual increase, according to Commerce.

NRF reported that based on its calculation of retail sales, which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants to focus on what it calls “core retail,” pointed to flat growth, from October to November, while posting a 14.8% unadjusted annual gain, well above a 1.8% increase, from September to October, and a 10.6% annual gain in November. NRF added that on a three-month moving average through November, retail sales were up 12.1% annually on an unadjusted basis.

“Consumers continued spending in November, building on momentum from strong early holiday shopping in October and setting the stage for a bright holiday season,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement. “Consumers’ financial condition remains healthy and neither stubborn inflation nor COVID-19 appear to have derailed holiday spending despite both being top of mind. Recent labor market progress has helped propel incredibly strong demand, and most shoppers have the income and savings to absorb higher prices driven by the pandemic and supply chain disruptions. While seasonally adjusted numbers may make the results look modest, seasonal patterns have been significantly disrupted by the pandemic and unadjusted data shows November’s sales as calculated by NRF were actually the highest on record.”

What’s more, NRF said that November represents the first half of the holiday shopping season, which it defines as retail sales for the months of November and December, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants. The organization said it now expects 2021 holiday retail sales to be up by as much as 11.5% annually, topping its previous estimate of an increase between 8.5%-to-10.5%, coming in between $843.4 billion and $859 billion.

And through the first 11 months of 2021, NRF said that retail sales, based on its calculations, are up 14.2% annually, which is in line with its full-year 2021 forecast, calling for retail sales to be up between 10.5%-to-13.5% to between $4.44 trillion and $4.56 trillion.