Panjiva reports that U.S.-bound waterborne shipments are down from October to November

Data recently issued by Panjiva, an online search engine with detailed information on global suppliers and manufacturers, showed that United States-bound waterborne shipments for November were down sequentially and up annually.

Total shipments came in at 1,116,651, with the October to November differential up compared to -7 percent in 2013, and -6 percent in 2013, with 2011 flat.

And through the first 11 months of 2014, total shipments––at 12,941,741¬¬––are up 2 percent compared to the first 11 months of 2013.

Panjiva CEO Josh Green said that November shipments are primarily comprised of inventory for sale after the holiday season, with the drop in shipments from October to November indicative of a bit of caution regarding orders that were placed for the first quarter, and also with a dip in orders expected from October to November, although this was a larger one than what has been seen in recent years.

“This reflects uncertainty that existed going into the holiday season and how 2015 may shape up,” said Green. “My expectation is that the largely positive economic news over the last few months should translate into activity picking up again as we head into the New Year.”

What’s more, Green explained last month that the lackluster Black Friday retail sales numbers raised the possibility that retailers may have over-ordered and subsequently result in “inventory overhang” heading into 2015.

Whether or not that is the case is too early to tell, he said, because the 2014 holiday season largely met retailers’ expectations, which represents another positive economic indicator at this point of the year.

Green said it would not be surprising if December shipments come in on the weak side, as they reflect orders that were placed before it was known how holiday season activity would shake out.

When asked about the state of global trade conditions early into 2015, Green said that it is helpful to look at the first quarter of 2014, which saw shipments 7 percent higher compared to the first quarter of 2013.

“A year later in 2015, things are feeling better,” he said. “There is reason for optimism and the other interesting variable is the price of oil. It is changing the economics of global trade in mostly positive ways like lower shipping costs. What is giving people pause, though, is that the price of oil feels a bit like it is on a roller coaster, with people cautious about the possibility of prices going back up.”

And he added that the state of different global economies are diverging more now than they have in the past, with conventional wisdom indicating the U.S. economy is accelerating, growth in Asia is decelerating, and Europe is stagnant, which makes for three very different trajectories.

“That creates some real complexities for multinational organizations to manage in very different economic environments, in terms of managing liquidity in different economic clients,” said Green. “It feels like we are going to have to deal with a world, where different regions are changing and competing in very different ways.”