Port Tracker report calling for typical seasonal holiday retail import patterns

As the calendar continues to move along, numbers for United States-bound retail imports are expected to be typical seasonal gains, according to the most recent edition of the Port Tracker report issued late last week by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma, Seattle, Houston, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, and Savannah, Miami, and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades. Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

“The holidays are nearly here, and from warehouses to store shelves, retailers are making sure they have the merchandise on hand to meet consumers’ demands,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement. “November and December are the busiest time for holiday shopping, but [October] is the month for the behind-the-scenes supply chain work that ensures shoppers will find what they want, where they want it, when they want it.”

For August, the most recent month for which “after the fact” data is available, total volume was 1.71 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), which marked a 5 percent increase over July and a 1.7 percent annual gain, while also being the highest-volume month to date in 2016.

September volumes dropped to an estimated 1.64 million TEU while still posting a 0.9 percent annual gain. October, which the report pegged to be second-busiest month of the year, is expected to see a 6 percent annual increase at 1.65 million TEU, and November is predicted to be up 3.9 percent at 1.54 million TEU. December and January are expected to be up 3.4 percent and up 2.7 percent, respectively, at 1.48 million TEU and 1.53 million TEU.

These projections follow the NRF’s recent forecast for holiday sales, which are defined as the sales for November and December, to be up 3.6 percent at $655.8 billion. And for all of 2016, the Port Tracker report said total 2016 volume is expected to be up 2.1 percent at 18.6 million TEU, which would mark a lower annual gain than 2015’s 5.4 percent gain over 2014 at 18.2 million TEU.

While the U.S. economy is still largely uneven on various fronts, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett commented in the report that there are some hopeful signs, too, including second quarter U.S. GDP at 1.4 percent, which exceeded its initial estimate of 1.2 percent, as well as the ISM’s manufacturing PMI seeing a nice rebound in September to 51.5 (a reading of 50 or higher signals growth), buoyed by strength in new orders.

And he also noted that the U.S. inventory-to-sales ratio is seeing modest declines after a sustained period of gains, which he viewed as a positive, explaining that it is one of the best indicators of economic activity.

“It’s not down by much, but the key is that the sharp rise seen earlier this year appears to have come to an end,” he said.

Hackett added that consumer expenditures appear to have slowed but remain positive, which suggests a cautious approach by consumers as they have increased their savings to 5.7 percent from 5.6 percent.