Commerce and NRF report February retail sales gains

February 2019 retail sales data issued today by the United States Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation (NRF) showed sequential declines and annual gains.

Commerce reported that January retail sales, at $506 billion, slipped 0.2% compared to January and rose 2.2% annually. And total retail sales from December 2018 through February 2019 headed up 2.2% annually.

Retail trade sales fell 0.2% compared to January and were up 2.1% annually, and non-store retailers, which is largely comprised of e-commerce activity, saw a 10% increase compared to February 2018.

The NRF reported that February retail sales were off 0.7% compared to January and were up 2.7%, unadjusted, annually, noting that delays and revisions, due to the federal government shutdown, have made for difficult annual comparisons. These figures exclude sales from automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants.

Through February, the three-month moving average rose 2.2% compared to the same period a year ago, according to the NRF, which NRF said built upon January’s 1.9% and 4.8% sequential and annual gains (revised from original readings of 1.3% and 3.6%).

“The weaker-than-expected February retail sales numbers reflect colder weather and increased precipitation that kept shoppers home but were also skewed downward because of the government’s upward revision in January’s results,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement. “The aftereffects of the erratic stock market, the government shutdown and slower tax refunds this year also likely played a role. It is important to look beyond the February figures and focus on the very significant revision to January retail sales, which shows that the consumer has not forsaken the economy as some previously claimed. We still expect growth to pick up, fueled by strong fundamentals like job and wage growth that are driving increased consumer spending. The consumer will continue to provide direction and strength to the U.S. economy in the months ahead.”

In February, the NRF said it expected 2019 retail sales to come in between 3.8%-to-4.4% to $3.82 trillion, to be exact. That forecast falls short of the NRF’s call for a minimum increase of 4.5% from 2017 to 2018. And the NRF’s 2018 estimate originally matched the 2019 estimate of 3.8%-to-4.4% growth, too. Online store sales alone, should they rise at the forecasted rate of 10%-to-12%, would come in between $751.1 billion and $764.8 billion.

Some key sector February retail sales data cited by the NRF included:
online and other non-store sales were up 10.1% year-over-year and up 0.9% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
general merchandise stores were up 1.1% year-over-year but down 0.3% month-over-month seasonally adjusted; and
furniture and home furnishings stores were down 2.7% year-over-year and down 0https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-kleinhenz-ph-d-33319b3.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted