Services Economy

As was the case in its previous edition in December, the manufacturing and services sectors remain on diverging paths, to a certain extent, in May. One common theme the sectors share, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) May 2024 Semiannual Economic Forecast.

The Services PMI, at 49.4 (a reading of 50 or higher signals growth) fell 2.0%. The last time the index contracted was in December 2022, when it came in at 49 and prior to that the last month seeing contraction was in May 2020, when it came in at 45.4.

The Services PMI, at 51.5 (a reading of 50 or higher signals growth), fell 1.2% in March, while growing, at a slower rate, for the 15th consecutive month. This marks growth in 45 of the last 46 months, with December 2022 being the one month with a decline over that period. ISM added that the overall economy, like the March Services PMI, saw growth, at a slower rate, for the 15th consecutive month as well.

The Services PMI, at 52.6 (a reading of 50 or higher signals growth), fell 0.8% in February, while growing, at a slower rate, for the 14th consecutive month. This marks growth in 44 of the last 45 months, with December 2022 being the one month with a decline over that period.

The Services PMI, at 53.4 (a reading of 50 or higher signals growth), was up 2.9% in January, growing, at a faster rate, for the 13th consecutive month. This marks growth in 43 of the last 44 months, with December 2022 being the one month with a decline over that period. ISM added that the overall economy, like the January Services PMI, saw growth, at a faster rate, for the 13th consecutive month as well.

The Services PMI, at 50.6 (a reading of 50 or higher signals growth), fell 2.1% compare to November’s 52.7 reading, growing, at a slower rate, for the 12th consecutive month. ISM observed that the services sector and the overall economy have each been growing, at a slower rate, for the 12th consecutive month, through December. And it added that ISM the services sector has seen growth in 42 of the last 43 months, with December 2022 being the one month with a decline. 

For manufacturing, ISM is estimating a 5.6% revenue gain in 2024; while ISM member panelists are calling for 2024 services-based economy revenues to increase 6.9% in 2024.

ISM reported that 15 of the 18 services sectors it tracks saw gains in November, with Transportation & Warehousing, Retail Trade, and Wholesale Trade among these.

The Services PMI, at 54.5 (a reading of 50 or higher signals growth), increased 1.8%, growing, at a faster rate, for the eighth consecutive month. ISM said that the services sector has seen growth in 38 of the last 39 months, with December 2022 being the one month with a decline. 

The Services PMI—at 50.3 (a reading of 50 or higher signals growth)—fell 1.6% off of May’s 51.9 reading, growing, at a slower rate, for the fifth consecutive month. ISM said that the services sector has seen growth in 35 of the last 36 months, with December 2022 being the one month with a decline. 

The Services PMI—at 51.9 (a reading of 50 or higher signals growth)—increased 0.7% over March’s 51.2, growing, at a faster rate, for the fourth consecutive month. ISM said that the services sector has seen growth in 34 of the last 35 months, with December 2022 being the one month with a decline. 

The Services PMI—at 51.2 (a reading of 50 or higher signals growth)—was down 3.9% compared to February’s 55.1, growing, at a slower rate, for the third consecutive month. ISM said that the services sector has seen growth in 33 of the last 34 months, with December 2022 being the one month with a decline. 

The Services PMI—at 55.1 (a reading of 50 or higher signals growth)—was essentially even with January’s reading with a 0.1% decline, growing, at a slower rate, for the second consecutive month. January was 6.0% above December’s 49.2, which was down 6.9% compared to November’s 55.5. ISM added that the overall economy also grew, at a slower rate, in February, for the second consecutive month.

The Services PMI—at 55.2 (a reading of 50 or higher signals growth)—increased 6.0% over December’s 49.2, which was down 6.9% compared to November’s 55.5. Through November, the Services PMI had grown for 30 consecutive months.

The Services PMI—at 49.6 a (a reading of 50 or higher signals growth)—fell 6.9% off of December’s 56.5, snapping a 30-month run of growth, coupled with the PMI contracting for two consecutive months for the first time going back to April and May 2020, in the early months of the pandemic. What’s more, prior to December’s PMI contraction, services growth had been intact for 152 of the last 154 months through November.